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The Future of Work: Navigating Short-term Turbulence for Long-term Abundance

PwC’s AI Jobs Barometer, a rather robust piece of empirical work analysing millions of job advertisements, offers a compelling snapshot of AI’s influence on jobs, skills, wages, and productivity. The 2024 Barometer was built upon analysis of over half a billion job ads from 15 countries, providing insights across Europe, North America, Asia, and Australasia. By the 2025 Global AI Jobs Barometer, this analysis had significantly expanded, examining close to a billion job ads and thousands of company financial reports across six continents. This scaling-up of the data naturally allows for a broader, more comprehensive global perspective.

Comparing the findings between these two reports reveals not merely a continuation of previously identified trends, but a discernible acceleration.

The Accelerating Impact of AI on the Workforce

  1. Demand for AI Skills is Surging: The 2024 report highlighted that openings for jobs requiring specific AI specialist skills (such as machine learning) were growing significantly faster than all jobs – 3 times faster since 2016 and 3.5 times faster since 2012. This trend, observed well before the recent surge in public attention around generative AI, has intensified. The 2025 Barometer confirms that jobs requiring AI skills continue to outpace overall job growth, increasing by 7.5% last year while total job postings actually fell by 11.3%. This clearly signals a sustained and growing appetite for AI capabilities across the economy.

2. The Wage Premium for AI Skills has Exploded: This is perhaps one of the most striking points of acceleration. In 2024, the Barometer found that jobs demanding AI specialist skills attracted a notable wage premium of up to 25% on average. This premium varied by country and occupation, with examples ranging from +3% to +58% across the analysed data. By the 2025 report, this premium had soared. Workers with AI skills now command a 56% wage premium on average. The report explicitly states this is “up from 25% last year”. This dramatic increase underscores the rapidly growing value companies place on individuals who can effectively leverage AI. Every industry analysed in 2025 pays a wage premium for AI skills.

3. AI is Driving Substantial Productivity Growth: The 2024 report provided evidence that sectors with higher AI exposure were seeing 4.8 times greater labour productivity growth compared to less exposed sectors. This was framed as AI already driving a productivity revolution. The 2025 report shifts the metric slightly to “revenue per employee”. Industries most able to use AI now show 3 times higher growth in revenue per employee. Crucially, the report highlights that since 2022 (the year awareness of AI’s power surged, likely referring to the widespread attention brought by models like ChatGPT), productivity growth in industries best positioned for AI adoption has nearly quadrupled, while slightly declining in industries least exposed to AI. This provides compelling evidence that AI is now translating into tangible economic value at the organisational level.

4. Job Numbers are Growing in AI-Exposed Roles, Albeit More Slowly: Contrary to fears of mass job displacement, the 2024 report found that job openings in occupations identified as AI-exposed were still growing overall, though 27% more slowly than in non-exposed ones. It suggested AI was helping to ease labour shortages. The 2025 report reiterates that job numbers are growing more slowly in occupations more exposed to AI (38% growth over the past five years) compared to less exposed occupations (65% growth). However, a critical finding is that job numbers – and wages – are growing in virtually every AI-exposed occupation, including those considered most highly automatable. This challenges the notion of widespread job losses and instead suggests a transformation of roles.

5. The “Skills Earthquake” is Intensifying Dramatically: The 2024 Barometer noted that the skills required by employers in AI-exposed occupations were changing at a 25% faster rate than in roles less exposed to AI. This pace of change demands that workers in these roles proactively build new competencies. The 2025 report shows a massive acceleration in this “skills earthquake”. Skills sought by employers are now changing a staggering 66% faster in jobs most exposed to AI versus least exposed. This is “up from 25% last year”. This rapid evolution is fastest in automatable jobs, suggesting that these roles are being fundamentally reshaped by AI adoption.

6. AI Usage is Becoming Universal: While AI penetration was noted as accelerating, particularly in knowledge work sectors like professional services, information & communication, and financial services in 2024, the 2025 report makes a more emphatic claim: 100% of industries are increasing AI usage. This includes sectors less intuitively associated with AI, such as mining and construction. Demand for workers with AI skills is accelerating across all industries. This widespread adoption signals that businesses across the board are recognising the value of AI.

7. Automatable Jobs are Being Reshaped, Not Replaced: A significant focus of the 2025 report is on jobs where many tasks can be automated by AI. The key finding is that, counter to fears, job numbers and wages are growing even in the most highly automatable jobs. This suggests that automation is freeing workers from routine tasks, allowing them to focus on higher-value activities. The data even suggests that AI might be “upskilling” these roles. John the customer support agent, in the 2025 report’s example, shifts from handling simple queries to complex problem-solving with AI assistance.

8. Skills Trump Degrees, Especially in AI-Exposed Roles: The 2024 report touched upon the importance of hiring based on skills to help adaptation. The 2025 report adds a specific finding: employer demand for formal degrees is declining faster for AI-exposed jobs than for other roles. This shift suggests that “what matters is increasingly what people can do today”. This could potentially democratise opportunity for individuals without traditional qualifications.

9. AI as a Growth Engine: Both reports acknowledge AI’s potential for value creation. However, the 2025 report strongly frames AI not merely as an efficiency tool (“thinking small”) but as a growth strategy (“thinking big”). It argues that true value comes from leveraging AI to create new products, services, industries, and roles, rather than just automating existing tasks.

10. The Rise of Agentic AI: The 2025 report introduces the concept of Agentic AI, describing it as an advanced digital workforce capable of autonomous action, reasoning, execution, and learning. These AI agents are seen as significant “workforce multipliers,” capable of undertaking tasks like drafting pitches, tracking leads, managing standards, or processing documents, thereby allowing human workers to achieve more. This concept was not a feature of the 2024 report, highlighting the rapid advancement and integration of AI capabilities.

11. Opportunities and Risks for Women: A new, crucial finding in the 2025 report is that more women than men are in AI-exposed jobs in every country analysed. This presents a duality: significant opportunity if women acquire the necessary skills, but also a risk if they lag in AI adoption. The report notes that US data suggests women’s AI adoption levels currently lag men’s.

Looking Ahead: The Fearless Future and Beyond

The PwC AI Jobs Barometer paints a picture of a future workforce where AI is deeply integrated, augmenting human capabilities and driving productivity. The challenge lies in navigating this transition effectively. The “skills earthquake” necessitates continuous learning and adaptation for workers. Companies must focus on upskilling their workforce.

My own projections, as outlined in the timeline document, provide a potential trajectory for these developments:

• Near-Term (2024-2025): We are seeing incremental improvements in frontier models like GPT5, Claude 4, and Llama 4/5, reaching higher benchmark performance. Enterprise deployment is becoming widespread. There’s an AI hiring surge, but also initial integration challenges. Multimodal models are improving, and we might see early commercial humanoid robots. Regulatory discussions are intensifying globally, with different approaches emerging (EU’s comprehensive AI Act, the US’s case-by-case stance, the UK/Switzerland’s sector-specific approach, China’s proactive stance, etc.).

• Mid-Term (2026-2029): Models like GPT6, Claude 5, and Llama 5 are anticipated to be “enterprise-ready”, reigniting discussions about Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). Advanced AI models will integrate into smart homes and robots. We might anticipate the “Year of AGI” around 2027, leading to significant disruption, potential mass layoffs sparked by market pressures, and heightened geopolitical tension with AI as a catalyst. There will be major disruptions in creative industries. Regulatory constraints and safety concerns will temper immediate changes. Discussions around “post-labour economics” might hit the mainstream. The “Tech Renaissance” and “Age of Intelligence” could begin around 2029-2030, with robots becoming commonplace.

• Longer-Term (2030s and Beyond): This could be the defining era of the “Age of Intelligence”. AGI may be achieved or surpassed (ASI), leading to AI taking over strategic decisions. We could see a reduced need for human labour and the emergence of hybrid teams of humans and AI entities. Job redesign will be necessary to complement AI capabilities. The focus of human purpose and identity may shift away from traditional work towards societal contributions, personal growth, arts, and humanities. There will be significant socioeconomic shifts and a new geopolitical paradigm. Concepts like Universal Basic Income (UBI) might be debated and potentially implemented to support livelihoods. We might even reach Longevity Escape Velocity.

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